Go / no-go: how to decide which tenders your practice should chase

TenderDesk · 12 Oct 2026 · 20 min read

go-no-go bid strategy public tenders architecture engineering

A practical go/no-go method for small architecture and engineering practices: eligibility killers, real bid costs, a weighted scorecard, wired-tender signals and a one-page template.

Chase a public tender only when you pass every eligibility rule on day one and your realistic chance of winning is higher than your break-even win rate: the full bid cost divided by the contribution the commission would earn. In practice that means a pass/fail check (turnover, insurance, references, registration), then a weighted score for fit, competition, relationship, margin and strategic value, then the sum. Most small practices should decline most notices and put the saved hours into the few they can win.

Key points

Eligibility is pass/fail and comes first. Turnover, insurance, references and registration knock out more small practices than design quality does.
Price every bid in hours. A two-stage design tender can absorb 150–250 hours. Cost them at your internal rate, not your charge-out rate.
Use the break-even win rate. Bid cost ÷ contribution from the fee = the win rate you need. If you can't beat it, the bid must earn its place on strategy.
Score, don't argue. A weighted scorecard turns a partners' debate into a ten-minute decision.
Watch for "wired" tenders. Oddly specific references, minimum deadlines and an incumbent who wrote the brief prove nothing alone, but together they should lower your score.
Partnering is often the best "go". If you fail a selection criterion, join a stronger lead or rely on a partner's capacity.
Manage a portfolio. Set a bid-hours budget, mix safe and stretch bids, and track cost per win.

Why the decision matters more than the bid

Small practices more often lose by bidding for the wrong tenders than by writing badly. The Architects' Council of Europe (ACE) Sector Study found that European practices submitted on average just 0.5 bids each for above-threshold (OJEU) contracts in 2022, down from 2.3 in 2018. 78% of practices reported difficulty with OJEU bidding. The reasons given included turnover thresholds (35%), insufficient past experience (30%) and professional indemnity insurance requirements (9%), while 43% called OJEU bidding "too onerous" and 38% "too costly" (ACE, 2023).

The cost is real. Dutch architecture firms spent an average of €53,000–€76,000 each on tenders and competitions in 2023, according to BNA benchmark figures cited in the BNA's response to the EU directive review (BNA, 2025). A 2012 RIBA survey found UK architects had spent around £40m in the previous year preparing OJEU bids, equal to 29% of the turnover those bids brought in (RIBA, 2018).

Meanwhile competition overall is thinning. The European Court of Auditors found the average number of bidders per EU procedure fell from about six in 2011 to about three in 2021, and 42% of contracts in 2021 drew a single bid (ECA Special Report 28/2023). Those are all-sector figures, and design selection stages often draw far more applicants. But buyers do need credible bidders, and a well-chosen bid is welcome.

Step 1: Work out what the bid really costs

Count the hours by stage

Use your own timesheets. If you have none, start with the estimate below and correct it after every bid. The ranges are illustrative for a 5–20 person practice on a mid-sized public building, not industry statistics.

Stage	Typical tasks	Illustrative hours
Screening and go/no-go	Read notice and documents, check eligibility, score	3–6
Selection stage (request to participate)	ESPD or national forms, references, CVs, insurance and turnover evidence, team letter	20–40
Tender stage	Methodology, team and organisation, programme, fee build-up, partner coordination, QA	80–150
Design element (if asked)	Site analysis, concept sketches, visuals, short report	40–120+
Interview or presentation	Deck, rehearsal, attendance, travel	15–30
Partners' time	Engineers, cost consultant, landscape	Count it, even if unpaid

Add hard costs: translations, bought-in visuals, travel, printing and certified copies.

Use your internal cost rate

Multiply hours by what an hour costs you (salary plus overheads), not by your charge-out rate. This guide uses €80 an hour as an example; use your own figure. Bid hours are overhead: they come straight out of profit.

The break-even win rate

Break-even win rate = full bid cost ÷ contribution from the commission

Contribution is the fee minus the direct cost of delivering the work. A €400,000 fee that costs €300,000 to deliver gives €100,000. If a full bid costs €15,000, you must win 15% of bids like it just to break even. If your honest odds are lower, the bid only makes sense for a strategic reason (a new building type, buyer or country), and you should write that reason down.

Worked example: restricted procedure for a school extension

Estimated fee: €450,000 for full design services (above the EU sub-central services threshold of €216,000 that applies from 1 January 2026 (Delegated Regulation (EU) 2025/2152)).
Contribution at 22% (your figure will differ): €99,000.
Selection stage: 30 hours × €80 = €2,400.
Tender stage including a short design note and partner coordination: 140 hours × €80 = €11,200, plus €1,500 in visuals and travel.
Interview: 20 hours × €80 = €1,600.
Full bid cost if you go all the way: €16,700.
Break-even win rate: €16,700 ÷ €99,000 ≈ 17%.

Now the odds. Five will be shortlisted; suppose 30 apply. A neutral applicant has a 17% chance of shortlisting and 20% of winning from the shortlist: about 3% overall. A practice with three recent school references and an engineer who knows the buyer's estate might fairly claim 40% and 30%: 12% overall.

12% is below the 17% break-even. But you only pay for stage two if shortlisted, so the expected cost of starting is €2,400 + (40% × €14,300) ≈ €8,100: a break-even of about 8%. Expected contribution is 12% × €99,000 ≈ €11,900. A marginal "go". Without the school references, odds fall to around 3%, expected contribution to about €3,000, and the answer is no.

Two lessons. The selection stage is cheap, so it is often rational to apply and make a second decision when the full documents arrive. And relevance moves the numbers most.

A sanity check from the Netherlands

The Dutch architects' association recommends that the combined bid investment of all selected firms should not exceed 10% of the contract value, which with five firms means about 2% each (BNA Handreiking Gezonde Architectenselecties 2026). In the example, 2% of €450,000 is €9,000, less than the tender stage alone. The buyer is asking for too much. Cut your design effort to what the award criteria score, or ask whether an honorarium is paid.

Step 2: Run the eligibility killers before anything else

Selection criteria are pass/fail: fail one and your methodology is never read. Check them in the first hour.

Turnover

Under Article 58(3) of Directive 2014/24/EU, a minimum yearly turnover requirement must not exceed twice the estimated contract value, unless the buyer gives a justified reason. A notice for a €300,000 fee that asks for €1.5 million a year without explanation may be disproportionate: raise it in a clarification question. Check also whether turnover is general or specific to the field, and over how many years.

Professional indemnity insurance

Read the cover required per claim and in aggregate, and whether an insurer's letter of intent is enough at bid stage. French buyers typically ask for proof of the compulsory ten-year liability insurance (assurance décennale) as well as professional liability, which a foreign practice may take weeks to arrange.

References

Annex XII to the directive allows buyers to ask for a list of principal services performed over at most the past three years, and to accept older ones where that is needed to keep competition open. The Dutch architects' association recommends a ten-year window for design work, because buildings take years to complete. Watch for stacked requirements (same type, same size, completed, last three years): each shrinks the field.

Germany is a useful benchmark. Section 75(5) of the VgV says references with comparable planning requirements must be accepted, and that having designed the same use type before is usually irrelevant (§ 75 VgV). Section 75(4) requires buyers to take account of small offices and newcomers.

Registration and professional title

Article 58(2) lets buyers require enrolment in a professional or trade register of the country where you are established. For architects that usually means the national order or chamber (Ordre des architectes, Architektenkammer, albo, colegio, Ordem dos Arquitectos, ARB). Cross-border, check whether the named architect needs registration or recognition in the buyer's country to sign applications, and how long that takes.

Exclusion grounds and admin

Unpaid taxes or social security, insolvency and some convictions are exclusion grounds under Article 57. Check your certificates are current and that you can sign with a qualified electronic signature if required. The ESPD guide covers the paperwork.

If you fail one check

Four options, in order:

Ask. A clarification question costs nothing ("Will references older than three years be accepted?").
Rely on another firm's capacity. Article 63 lets you rely on other entities for financial standing and technical ability. For professional qualifications and experience, the firm you rely on must actually perform the services concerned.
Bid as a group or as a partner to a lead that meets the criteria (see Step 5).
Walk away, and note what you'd need to qualify next time.

Step 3: Score the opportunity

The point is not precision. It is to decide the same way every time and make partners state their reasons.

The weighted scorecard

Score each criterion from 1 to 5, multiply by the weight, then divide the total by 5 to get a score out of 100.

Criterion	Weight	1 looks like	5 looks like
Fit (building type, scale, design brief)	25	New type, scale far above your largest job	Three or more recent, comparable projects
Competition (number and strength of rivals)	15	Open to all, likely 40+ applicants, strong incumbent	Shortlist of 3–5, no obvious favourite
Relationship and insight	15	Never met the buyer, no local knowledge	Past client, or partner who knows the estate
Margin (fee adequacy, payment terms, risk)	20	Fee looks below cost, heavy liability, price-led scoring	Realistic fee, quality-led scoring, fair contract
Strategic value	15	Nothing you'd put in your portfolio	Opens a new sector, city or country you want
Capacity (team free to deliver and bid)	10	Key people on other deadlines	Bid team and delivery team both available

Decision rule:

70 or more: go.
55–69: conditional go. Name the condition: a partner to fix fit, a clarification answer, a cap on bid hours.
Below 55: no-go, unless one partner signs off on a written strategic reason.

Keep the weights for a year, then adjust them against actual wins.

Read the award criteria as part of "margin"

The award criteria show whether the buyer is buying design or price. A 60/40 price/quality split for design is a warning (the BNA criticises it). Quality at 70% or more, with clear sub-criteria and architects on the panel, is a good sign. See how to write a winning tender response and how to price the fee.

Screen before you score

You can't score 50 notices a week. Filter first by CPV code (71200000 architectural services, 71240000 architectural, engineering and planning, 71300000 engineering), region, value and procedure, then score what survives. The TenderDesk feed scores notices by how much of a real design commission they are, which filters out most maintenance contracts mislabelled as design.

Step 4: Read the competition and the signs a tender is wired

Estimate how many rivals you'll face

Procedure type. In the restricted procedure the buyer must invite at least five candidates (three in the competitive procedure with negotiation), under Article 65. The notice usually states the maximum.
Past award notices. Search TED or the national portal for the buyer's previous design contracts. Award notices must state the number of tenders received (Annex V, Part D of the directive) and the winner. The same winner three times running is information.
Lotteries. In Germany, if too many applicants remain equally qualified, the buyer may draw lots (§ 75(6) VgV). The selection stage is then partly luck: cap your hours.

Signals that a tender may be wired

"Wired" means the specification has been shaped, deliberately or not, around one firm. Most tenders are not. Procurement-risk researchers use red flags such as a single bidder, a short advertisement period, calls modified mid-process, procedures cancelled and relaunched, and a high weight of subjective criteria (Corruption Research Center Budapest, 2015). The last needs care: quality should dominate design awards. The problem is subjective criteria with no sub-criteria or scoring method.

For architecture and engineering notices, look for:

References that describe one project. "A secondary school of 6,000–6,500 m², timber frame, Passivhaus certified, completed in the region in the last three years."
A deadline at or near the legal minimum for a complex job, or over a holiday. The directive's open procedure allows 35 days, as little as 15 after a prior information notice. Legal is not the same as realistic.
An incumbent who did the feasibility study. Article 41 requires the buyer to share relevant information from any firm involved in preparation and set adequate time limits. If the study isn't in the documents, ask for it.
Turnover far above twice the fee with no stated reason.
Brand names or proprietary software without "or equivalent".
A single, short-notice compulsory site visit.
Clarification answers that shift requirements towards a profile only one firm fits.
A re-run of a cancelled procedure with narrower criteria.

What to do with the signals

None of these proves anything, and accusing a buyer loses clients. Lower the competition score, ask polite clarification questions (answers go to all bidders and often fix the problem), and cap your hours. Formal challenges are rarely worth it for a small practice unless the breach is clear and the job important.

Step 5: Lead, partner, or pass

"No-go as lead" is not always "no-go". Bid as a partner or sub-consultant when:

You fail turnover, insurance or reference thresholds, but a larger firm meets them and lacks your specialism.
The lead role needs local registration, language or presence you lack. A local lead is the cheapest way into a new country.
The award criteria reward a large multidisciplinary team, and you are one discipline.
The scorecard comes out at 55–69 and the missing points are all in fit or capacity.

Partnering cuts your bid hours and builds the references to lead next time. The trade-offs: a smaller fee share, less design control and, in some structures, joint and several liability. The bid team structure guide compares options by country, the partner selection guide covers vetting, and the verified practices directory lists firms by discipline and country.

Country differences that change the maths

The EU rules are the same everywhere, but national law and professional practice change the cost side and the odds. Thresholds below are those in force at the time of writing (October 2026).

Country	What changes your go/no-go	Source
France	In a design contest (concours), participants whose submissions comply with the rules receive a prime equal to the estimated price of the studies requested, reduced by at most 20%. Shortlisted competition work is largely paid.	Art. R2172-4 CCP
Germany	Buyers must consider small offices and newcomers; building-type references are usually not required for comparability; lots may be drawn among qualified applicants. Under the competition rules (RPW 2013) the prize sum is normally at least the fee for preliminary design, minimum €10,000, but only prize-winners and commendations are paid unless an expense allowance is offered.	§ 75 VgV; RPW 2013 Annex II
Italy	For architecture and engineering services from €140,000, best price-quality ratio is mandatory and price may carry at most 30% of the score; since the 2024 amending decree, 65% of the reference fee is fixed and only 35% is open to discount. Price wars are limited, so quality scores decide.	Ediltecnico, 2025
Spain	Architecture is legally an "intellectual service" (LCSP, additional provision 41), so quality criteria must carry at least 51% of the score.	Supreme Court ruling summary
Netherlands	BNA guidance asks buyers for at least 80% quality weighting, references of 30–60% of the project size within 10 years, and a combined bid investment under 10% of contract value. Use it to judge whether a buyer is reasonable.	BNA Handreiking 2026
United Kingdom	Under the Procurement Act 2023, England's thresholds from 1 January 2026 include VAT: £135,018 (central government services), £207,720 (sub-central), £5,193,000 (works). Under section 93, authorities expecting to spend over £100m in a financial year publish pipeline notices listing planned contracts over £2m for the next 18 months: use them to build relationships before the tender.	Bevan Brittan; Welsh Government guidance

For Belgium, Switzerland, Portugal and Luxembourg, the national pages (Belgium, Switzerland, Portugal, Luxembourg) list current notices and portals. The scorecard works the same way; adjust the cost side for translation and registration time.

Step 6: Manage a portfolio, not a string of bids

Set a bid budget

Decide the total bid hours per quarter. A practice of ten people working about 1,650 hours each that sets aside 8% of its time has roughly 1,300 bid hours a year. At the example costs above, that covers about five full tenders plus a dozen selection-stage applications. When the budget is spent, the bar for "go" rises.

Mix the portfolio

A sensible split for a small practice:

Core (about 60% of bid hours): types and buyers where you score 4–5 on fit.
Stretch (about 25%): a new sector or region, ideally as partner to a firm that qualifies.
Reputation (about 15%): design contests that build the portfolio. French paid competitions make this cheaper than it looks.

Track what happens

After every result, record buyer, building type, procedure, number of bidders, your go/no-go score, hours, outcome and debrief points. After 15–20 bids you will know your hit rate by category, your cost per win, and whether your scorecard predicts anything. Always ask for a debrief.

Plan from the pipeline

Many good tenders are visible early: prior information notices, UK pipeline notices, council budget papers. The 2026 market overview shows where volume is growing. Knowing a school programme is coming lets you line up references and partners before the clock starts.

Common mistakes

Deciding on enthusiasm. "It's a lovely site" is not a reason. Score it.
Checking eligibility on day 20. One missing insurance letter or a two-year-old reference can void a month's work.
Over-designing. Producing more design than the award criteria score.
Never declining. A practice that bids for everything bids badly for everything.
Ignoring the second decision. Re-score when the full tender documents arrive.
Not recording losses. Without data, next year's decisions are as blind as this year's.

A one-page go/no-go template

Copy this and fill it in for every notice that passes screening.

GO / NO-GO RECORD
Tender:                         Buyer:
Portal / reference:             Country:
Procedure: open / restricted / negotiated / design contest
Estimated fee:                  Award criteria (quality/price):
Request to participate deadline:     Tender deadline:

A. ELIGIBILITY (all must be YES, or name the fix)
[ ] Turnover meets requirement (≤ 2x value?)     Fix:
[ ] PI insurance level and type                  Fix:
[ ] References: number, type, age                Fix:
[ ] Registration (home + buyer country if needed) Fix:
[ ] No exclusion grounds; certificates current
[ ] Qualified e-signature / portal access ready
[ ] Language of submission covered

B. SCORE (1-5 x weight, total / 5)
Fit (25) ___  Competition (15) ___  Relationship (15) ___
Margin (20) ___  Strategic value (15) ___  Capacity (10) ___
TOTAL / 100: ___

C. COST AND ODDS
Bid hours (selection / tender / interview): ___ / ___ / ___
Internal rate: ___   Hard costs: ___   Full bid cost: ___
Contribution if won: ___
Break-even win rate (cost / contribution): ___ %
Our realistic win probability: ___ %

D. WIRED SIGNALS (tick any)
[ ] Over-specific references  [ ] Minimum deadline  [ ] Incumbent prepared brief
[ ] Turnover > 2x value       [ ] Vague criteria    [ ] Re-run procedure

E. DECISION
GO as lead / GO as partner / CONDITIONAL GO (condition: ___) / NO-GO
Bid-hours cap: ___     Bid lead: ___     Decided by: ___   Date: ___
Re-decide at tender stage? Y / N

Checklist

Notice screened by CPV code, region, value and procedure
Full documents downloaded, including any feasibility study
Turnover requirement checked against the 2x rule
Insurance type and level confirmed with your broker
References matched to each requirement, with dates and values
Registration of the firm and the named architect confirmed
Tax and social security certificates current
E-signature and portal account ready
Bid hours estimated by stage and costed at internal rate
Break-even win rate calculated
Past award notices for this buyer checked (winners, number of bids)
Wired signals reviewed; clarification questions drafted
Scorecard completed and decision recorded
Lead / partner / pass decided; partners approached
Bid-hours cap set and a named bid lead appointed
Second go/no-go scheduled for the tender stage
Outcome and debrief logged after the result

Frequently asked questions

What win rate should an architecture practice expect on public tenders?

There is no reliable Europe-wide figure, and definitions vary. The ACE Sector Study reported a 42% "success rate" for public competitions and OJEU bids in 2022, but success was not defined and may include reaching a second stage or winning a prize. For tenders against unknown rivals, plan on 10–30% for bids you are well qualified for, and refine it with your own records by building type.

How much does it cost to bid for a public architecture tender?

It depends on the stages and the design asked for. A two-stage restricted procedure for a mid-sized public building can absorb 150–250 hours including the interview, plus partners' time and hard costs. Dutch practices spent an average of €53,000–€76,000 each on tenders and competitions in 2023 (BNA benchmark).

Can a buyer ask for a turnover higher than the contract value?

Yes, but under Article 58(3) of Directive 2014/24/EU the minimum yearly turnover must not exceed twice the estimated contract value unless the buyer justifies a higher figure in the documents. If it looks disproportionate, ask a clarification question before the deadline. You can also rely on another firm's financial capacity under Article 63.

How can I tell if a tender is already promised to another firm?

You can't know for sure. Warning signs include references describing one specific project, deadlines at the legal minimum, an unshared feasibility study by another firm, and the same winner in the buyer's recent award notices. Lower your score, ask clarification questions and cap your hours rather than walking away on suspicion alone.

Should we bid if we don't meet the reference requirements?

Not alone. Ask whether older or broader references are accepted, then consider relying on a partner's experience or joining a lead firm that qualifies. Note that when you rely on another firm's professional experience, that firm must actually perform the related services.

Is it worth entering architecture design competitions?

Often, if you choose them carefully. In a French public design contest for architectural services, participants whose submissions comply with the rules receive a prime of at least 80% of the estimated price of the studies requested, which makes them far cheaper than unpaid tenders. In Germany only prize-winners and commendations are normally paid unless an expense allowance is offered, so treat those as reputation spending within a fixed budget.

When should we make the go/no-go decision?

Twice for two-stage procedures. Make the first decision within a day or two of the notice, before you invest in the selection stage. Make the second when the full tender documents arrive, because the brief, fee basis and design requirements often change the maths.